Science · Predicted Papers
Science
40
Papers to sit
4
Exam boards
2027
Forecast year
These are forecasts, not certainties. They are trained on Edexcel, AQA, OCR and OCR Twenty First Century Science B series up to 2023 and 2024, depending on the board. The questions are ours: every paper here is an original built to the shape and topic mix its board's forecast expects, not a copy of a real paper and not a leak.
How far past the data this reaches
The series sat since each board's own cutoff are not in the corpus yet, so predicting 2027 means extrapolating up to 4 years past the last real data point rather than the usual one year. Each board's figures are its own first forecast carried forward, and are refreshed as later series are tagged; its exact cutoff is on its section below.
01
AQA GCSE
Forecast for 2027, trained on AQA series to 2023.
11 papers · 770 marks
F1
Foundation (Combined Science: Biology) Paper 1
Foundation (Combined Science: Biology)F1
Foundation (Combined Science: Chemistry) Paper 1
Foundation (Combined Science: Chemistry)F1
Foundation (Combined Science: Physics) Paper 1
Foundation (Combined Science: Physics)H1
Higher (Combined Science: Biology) Paper 1
Higher (Combined Science: Biology)H1
Higher (Combined Science: Chemistry) Paper 1
Higher (Combined Science: Chemistry)H1
Higher (Combined Science: Physics) Paper 1
Higher (Combined Science: Physics)F2
Foundation (Combined Science: Biology) Paper 2
Foundation (Combined Science: Biology)F2
Foundation (Combined Science: Physics) Paper 2
Foundation (Combined Science: Physics)H2
Higher (Combined Science: Biology) Paper 2
Higher (Combined Science: Biology)H2
Higher (Combined Science: Chemistry) Paper 2
Higher (Combined Science: Chemistry)H2
Higher (Combined Science: Physics) Paper 2
Higher (Combined Science: Physics)02
Edexcel GCSE
Forecast for 2027, trained on Edexcel series to 2024.
9 papers · 540 marks
F1
Foundation (Combined Science: Biology) Paper 1
Foundation (Combined Science: Biology)F1
Foundation (Combined Science: Chemistry) Paper 1
Foundation (Combined Science: Chemistry)F1
Foundation (Combined Science: Physics) Paper 1
Foundation (Combined Science: Physics)H1
Higher (Combined Science: Biology) Paper 1
Higher (Combined Science: Biology)H1
Higher (Combined Science: Chemistry) Paper 1
Higher (Combined Science: Chemistry)F2
Foundation (Combined Science: Physics) Paper 2
Foundation (Combined Science: Physics)H2
Higher (Combined Science: Biology) Paper 2
Higher (Combined Science: Biology)H2
Higher (Combined Science: Chemistry) Paper 2
Higher (Combined Science: Chemistry)H2
Higher (Combined Science: Physics) Paper 2
Higher (Combined Science: Physics)03
OCR GCSE
Forecast for 2027, trained on OCR series to 2024.
12 papers · 720 marks
F1
Foundation (Combined Science: Biology) Paper 1
Foundation (Combined Science: Biology)F1
Foundation (Combined Science: Chemistry) Paper 1
Foundation (Combined Science: Chemistry)F1
Foundation (Combined Science: Physics) Paper 1
Foundation (Combined Science: Physics)H1
Higher (Combined Science: Biology) Paper 1
Higher (Combined Science: Biology)H1
Higher (Combined Science: Chemistry) Paper 1
Higher (Combined Science: Chemistry)H1
Higher (Combined Science: Physics) Paper 1
Higher (Combined Science: Physics)F2
Foundation (Combined Science: Biology) Paper 2
Foundation (Combined Science: Biology)F2
Foundation (Combined Science: Chemistry) Paper 2
Foundation (Combined Science: Chemistry)F2
Foundation (Combined Science: Physics) Paper 2
Foundation (Combined Science: Physics)H2
Higher (Combined Science: Biology) Paper 2
Higher (Combined Science: Biology)H2
Higher (Combined Science: Chemistry) Paper 2
Higher (Combined Science: Chemistry)H2
Higher (Combined Science: Physics) Paper 2
Higher (Combined Science: Physics)04
OCR Twenty First Century Science B GCSE
Forecast for 2027, trained on OCR Twenty First Century Science B series to 2024.
8 papers · 720 marks
F1
Foundation (Combined Science: Biology) Paper 1
Foundation (Combined Science: Biology)F1
Foundation (Combined Science: Chemistry) Paper 1
Foundation (Combined Science: Chemistry)F1
Foundation (Combined Science: Physics) Paper 1
Foundation (Combined Science: Physics)H1
Higher (Combined Science: Biology) Paper 1
Higher (Combined Science: Biology)H1
Higher (Combined Science: Chemistry) Paper 1
Higher (Combined Science: Chemistry)H1
Higher (Combined Science: Physics) Paper 1
Higher (Combined Science: Physics)F2
Foundation (Combined Science) Paper 2
Foundation (Combined Science)H2
Higher (Combined Science) Paper 2
Higher (Combined Science)How the Edexcel forecast is built, and where it is weak
- These figures are Edexcel Science and nothing else. The same model is run separately over each board this site holds question-level topic tagging for (Edexcel, AQA, OCR and OCR Twenty First Century Science B), and each board is tuned on its own history, so none of these numbers carries over to the Edexcel papers' neighbours in the list above. GCSE combined science per-question corpus for Edexcel, 2022-2024 (three sitting years is the minimum a series needed to publish at all, which is why several Edexcel series are absent). Hit-rate here is not comparable to maths': far fewer, coarser topics make the ranking easier.
- Built from every question in 4 years of this site's own tagged Edexcel past papers (2021 to 2024 for GCSE), not an opinion about the specification.
- The 2021 paper behind this model was a pandemic-disrupted resit series sat by small, non-representative cohorts, not a normal summer exam - they are kept in the data (dropping them would leave a hole) but are a genuinely weaker data point than the other years.
- Validated by predicting each of 2022, 2023 and 2024 from only the years before it. It correctly ranked the right topic 38-79% of the time, close to a coin flip. Its "recency-weighted" ranking loses to a plain historical-average count in 0 of its 3 own validated years, and its expected-marks figures ARE that plain historical average - Edexcel's own past-paper history showed no benefit from weighting recent papers more heavily. This is not a validated improvement over simply counting how often a topic has come up before.
- Probabilities below about 10% are poorly calibrated in this data, so the model's raw numbers are published nowhere on this site: they decide how many marks of each topic the papers above are built from, and nothing else. Treat a paper's topic mix as a direction of travel, not as a reading of the real one.
How the AQA forecast is built, and where it is weak
- These figures are AQA Science and nothing else. The same model is run separately over each board this site holds question-level topic tagging for (Edexcel, AQA, OCR and OCR Twenty First Century Science B), and each board is tuned on its own history, so none of these numbers carries over to the AQA papers' neighbours in the list above. GCSE combined science per-question corpus for AQA (Combined Science: Trilogy), 2021-2023. Hit-rate here is not comparable to maths': far fewer, coarser topics make the ranking easier.
- Built from every question in 6 years of this site's own tagged AQA past papers (2018 to 2023 for GCSE), not an opinion about the specification.
- The 2020 and 2021 papers behind this model were pandemic-disrupted resit series sat by small, non-representative cohorts, not a normal summer exam - they are kept in the data (dropping them would leave a hole) but are a genuinely weaker data point than the other years.
- Validated by predicting each of 2022 and 2023 from only the years before it. It correctly ranked the right topic 77-79% of the time, close to a coin flip. This is not a validated improvement over simply counting how often a topic has come up before.
- Probabilities below about 10% are poorly calibrated in this data, so the model's raw numbers are published nowhere on this site: they decide how many marks of each topic the papers above are built from, and nothing else. Treat a paper's topic mix as a direction of travel, not as a reading of the real one.
How the OCR forecast is built, and where it is weak
- These figures are OCR Science and nothing else. The same model is run separately over each board this site holds question-level topic tagging for (Edexcel, AQA, OCR and OCR Twenty First Century Science B), and each board is tuned on its own history, so none of these numbers carries over to the OCR papers' neighbours in the list above. GCSE combined science per-question corpus for OCR Gateway Science A (Combined Science A, J250), 2017-2024. Hit-rate here is not comparable to maths': far fewer, coarser topics make the ranking easier.
- Built from every question in 7 years of this site's own tagged OCR past papers (2018 to 2024 for GCSE), not an opinion about the specification.
- The 2020 and 2021 papers behind this model were pandemic-disrupted resit series sat by small, non-representative cohorts, not a normal summer exam - they are kept in the data (dropping them would leave a hole) but are a genuinely weaker data point than the other years.
- Validated by predicting each of 2022, 2023 and 2024 from only the years before it. It correctly ranked the right topic 83-88% of the time, close to a coin flip. Its "recency-weighted" ranking loses to a plain historical-average count in 0 of its 3 own validated years, and its expected-marks figures ARE that plain historical average - OCR's own past-paper history showed no benefit from weighting recent papers more heavily. This is not a validated improvement over simply counting how often a topic has come up before.
- Probabilities below about 10% are poorly calibrated in this data, so the model's raw numbers are published nowhere on this site: they decide how many marks of each topic the papers above are built from, and nothing else. Treat a paper's topic mix as a direction of travel, not as a reading of the real one.
How the OCR Twenty First Century Science B forecast is built, and where it is weak
- These figures are OCR Twenty First Century Science B Science and nothing else. The same model is run separately over each board this site holds question-level topic tagging for (Edexcel, AQA, OCR and OCR Twenty First Century Science B), and each board is tuned on its own history, so none of these numbers carries over to the OCR Twenty First Century Science B papers' neighbours in the list above. GCSE combined science per-question corpus for OCR Twenty First Century Science B (J260), 2018-2024; all other specifications are excluded. Hit-rate here is not comparable to maths': far fewer, coarser topics make the ranking easier.
- Built from every question in 7 years of this site's own tagged OCR Twenty First Century Science B past papers (2018 to 2024 for GCSE), not an opinion about the specification.
- The 2020 and 2021 papers behind this model were pandemic-disrupted resit series sat by small, non-representative cohorts, not a normal summer exam - they are kept in the data (dropping them would leave a hole) but are a genuinely weaker data point than the other years.
- Validated by predicting each of 2022, 2023 and 2024 from only the years before it. Over those folds it placed 54-62% of the topics that really came up in its top-ranked list of the same length. That clearly beats simply repeating last year's paper, but only modestly beats a plain historical-average baseline (a few percentage points of hit rate, at a small cost to how well the raw probabilities are calibrated). It is a real, if modest, edge - not a breakthrough.
- Probabilities below about 10% are poorly calibrated in this data, so the model's raw numbers are published nowhere on this site: they decide how many marks of each topic the papers above are built from, and nothing else. Treat a paper's topic mix as a direction of travel, not as a reading of the real one.