GCSE Maths · Topic guide

Probability

Probability measures how likely an event is to happen, given as a number from 0 (impossible) to 1 (certain), written as a fraction, decimal or percentage. This GCSE Probability topic covers single and combined events using sample space diagrams, tree diagrams, two-way tables and Venn diagrams, since all probabilities in a situation must add up to 1.

Grade 4-5 (Foundation & Higher)ProbabilityEdexcelAQAOCR

Before you start

Make sure you're comfortable with these topics first:

Method

  1. Identify all the possible outcomes and check whether they are equally likely.
  2. For a single event, probability = number of favourable outcomes divided by total number of outcomes.
  3. Remember all probabilities for a set of mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes must add up to 1, so a missing probability can be found by subtracting the others from 1.
  4. For combined events, use a sample space diagram, two-way table, tree diagram or Venn diagram to organise the outcomes systematically.
  5. For independent events, multiply the probabilities along the branches of a tree diagram; for 'at least one', use 1 minus the probability of neither happening.
  6. Check your final probability is between 0 and 1.

Worked example

A bag contains only red, blue and yellow counters. A counter is picked at random. P(red) = 0.3 and P(blue) = 0.45. There are 60 counters in the bag. Work out the number of yellow counters.

  1. All probabilities must add up to 1, so P(yellow) = 1 - 0.3 - 0.45.
  2. P(yellow) = 0.25.
  3. Number of yellow counters = 0.25 x 60.
  4. Final answer: 15 yellow counters.

Practice questions

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Exam-style questions

Written in the style of a GCSE Maths exam paper, with a full mark scheme.

Q1[3 marks]

A spinner can land on red, blue or green. The table shows the probability of each colour in terms of x: red = 3x, blue = 2x, green = 5x. Work out the value of x, then work out P(blue).

Q2[4 marks]

A biased coin has P(Heads) = 0.7. The coin is flipped twice. (a) Find the probability that the coin lands on tails both times. (b) Find the probability that the coin lands on exactly one head.

Q3[6 marks]

A bag contains 9 counters: 5 red and 4 blue. Two counters are taken from the bag at random, without replacement. (a) Write down the four missing probabilities for a tree diagram showing this information. (b) Find the probability that both counters are the same colour.

See real past-paper questions on probability, organised by topic with official mark schemes

Free printable worksheet

Want more practice on paper? Download the probability worksheet pack - 19 pages of exam-style questions with a full mark scheme. No sign-up, no email wall - just the PDF, free for personal and classroom use.

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