Further Statistics: Discrete Distributions Depth
Discrete Distributions Depth extends the Poisson and geometric distributions of FP.FS2 to derivations and harder applications that draw on the series techniques of Core Pure: proving the mean and variance formulas from the defining sum rather than quoting them, establishing the memoryless property of the geometric distribution, and finding the probability distribution of the sum of two independent discrete random variables by convolution, P(X+Y=k) = sum_i P(X=i) P(Y=k-i). These techniques are the kind of 'show that' work that carries the most marks in a Further Statistics paper, because they require algebraic manipulation of an infinite sum rather than a single formula lookup.
Before you start
Make sure you're comfortable with these topics first:
Method
- To prove a mean or variance formula, start from the defining sum (E(X) = sum x P(X=x) or similar) and manipulate it into a form that matches a known series - a geometric series sum_{n=0}^infty r^n = 1/(1-r) for |r|<1, or the exponential series e^x = sum x^n/n! - rather than trying to sum an unfamiliar series directly.
- For a geometric-distribution proof, differentiate the geometric series sum_{x=0}^infty q^x = 1/(1-q) term by term with respect to q to generate sum x q^{x-1}, then multiply by the missing constant to match E(X).
- For a Poisson-distribution proof, it is often easier to find E(X(X-1)) first, since the x(x-1) factor cancels part of the x! in the denominator of the probability function, then use Var(X) = E(X(X-1)) + E(X) - [E(X)]^2.
- To prove the memoryless property of a geometric distribution, write P(X>s+t | X>s) = P(X>s+t AND X>s)/P(X>s) = P(X>s+t)/P(X>s) (since X>s+t implies X>s), then use P(X>n) = (1-p)^n and simplify the quotient of powers.
- To find the distribution of X+Y for independent discrete X and Y, list every pair of values (i, k-i) that sum to the target k, multiply P(X=i) by P(Y=k-i) for each pair, and add the products: P(X+Y=k) = sum_i P(X=i) P(Y=k-i).
- Check a derived formula by testing it against a value you already know: does the derived variance formula give the right number for a specific lambda or p you can check by direct summation of a few terms of the original series?
Worked example
Prove that if X ~ Geo(p), so that P(X=x) = (1-p)^{x-1} p for x = 1, 2, 3, ..., then E(X) = 1/p.
- Write E(X) = sum_{x=1}^infty x (1-p)^{x-1} p. Let q = 1-p and take the constant p outside the sum: E(X) = p * sum_{x=1}^infty x q^{x-1}.
- Recognise the geometric series S(q) = sum_{x=0}^infty q^x = 1/(1-q) for |q| < 1.
- Differentiate both sides of S(q) with respect to q: the left side becomes sum_{x=1}^infty x q^{x-1} (the x=0 term has derivative 0), and the right side becomes 1/(1-q)^2 by the chain rule.
- So sum_{x=1}^infty x q^{x-1} = 1/(1-q)^2. Since 1 - q = p, this equals 1/p^2.
- Substitute back: E(X) = p * sum_{x=1}^infty x q^{x-1} = p * (1/p^2) = 1/p.
- Final answer: E(X) = 1/p, as required - this confirms the formula quoted and used without proof in FP.FS2.
Practice questions
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Q1Write down the value of the geometric series sum_{x=0}^infty q^x for |q| < 1.Show answer
Answer: 1/(1-q)
Q2State the memoryless property of the geometric distribution in words.Show answer
Answer: Given that there has been no success in the first s trials, the probability of needing a further t trials to get the first success is the same as the original probability of needing t trials from the start: P(X>s+t | X>s) = P(X>t)
Q3Independent random variables X and Y each take values in {1,2} with P(X=1)=0.6, P(X=2)=0.4, P(Y=1)=0.5, P(Y=2)=0.5. Find P(X+Y=3).Show answer
Answer: P(X+Y=3) = P(X=1)P(Y=2) + P(X=2)P(Y=1) = 0.6(0.5) + 0.4(0.5) = 0.5
Q4For the random variables X and Y in the question above, find P(X+Y=2).Show answer
Answer: P(X+Y=2) = P(X=1)P(Y=1) = 0.6(0.5) = 0.3
Q5Using E(X(X-1)) = lambda^2 for X ~ Po(lambda), and E(X) = lambda, find E(X^2) in terms of lambda.Show answer
Answer: E(X(X-1)) = E(X^2) - E(X) = lambda^2, so E(X^2) = lambda^2 + lambda
Q6Hence show that Var(X) = lambda for X ~ Po(lambda), given E(X^2) = lambda^2 + lambda and E(X) = lambda.Show answer
Answer: Var(X) = E(X^2) - [E(X)]^2 = (lambda^2 + lambda) - lambda^2 = lambda
Q7X ~ Geo(0.2). Using the memoryless property, find P(X>12 | X>7).Show answer
Answer: P(X>12 | X>7) = P(X>5) [since 12-7=5] = 0.8^5 = 0.32768
Exam-style questions
Written in the style of a A Level Further Maths exam paper, with a full mark scheme.
Let X ~ Geo(p), so P(X=x) = (1-p)^{x-1} p for x = 1, 2, 3, ..., and let q = 1-p. Given that E(X) = 1/p, and that differentiating S(q) = sum_{x=0}^infty q^x = 1/(1-q) twice with respect to q gives sum_{x=2}^infty x(x-1) q^{x-2} = 2/(1-q)^3, show that Var(X) = (1-p)/p^2.
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Two independent discrete random variables X and Y have the following distributions. X: values 0, 1, 2 with probabilities 0.5, 0.3, 0.2. Y: values 0, 1 with probabilities 0.4, 0.6. Let W = X + Y. (a) Find the probability distribution of W, listing every possible value with its probability. (b) Find E(W) using your distribution, and verify it equals E(X) + E(Y).
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Let X ~ Geo(p) and let s and t be positive integers. By first showing that P(X>n) = (1-p)^n for any positive integer n, prove that P(X>s+t | X>s) = P(X>t).
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