A Level Maths · Topic guide

Statistics: Distributions Depth

In A-level Statistics, Distributions Depth takes the binomial and normal distributions beyond a single direct probability calculation: finding the mean and variance of a linear transformation of a binomial or normal random variable (such as a total cost built from a fixed number of trials), finding an unknown mean or standard deviation of a normal distribution from a given probability, including solving simultaneously when BOTH are unknown, and applying the continuity correction precisely in all four directions when a normal distribution is used to approximate a binomial one. The examiner is testing algebraic control of E(aX+b) and Var(aX+b), fluency with the inverse normal function, and care with strict versus non-strict inequalities under a continuity correction.

A LevelStatisticsEdexcelAQAOCRWJEC

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Method

  1. Decide what the question needs. A new variable defined as Y = aX + b (or built from several independent trials): use E(aX+b) = aE(X) + b and Var(aX+b) = a^2 Var(X). One unknown parameter (mu or sigma) of a normal distribution with one given probability: standardise and use the inverse normal function. BOTH mu and sigma unknown, with two given probabilities: form two equations and solve simultaneously. Approximating a binomial with a normal distribution: check np>5 and n(1-p)>5, then apply a continuity correction.
  2. For X ~ B(n,p), E(X) = np and Var(X) = np(1-p). For any linear transformation Y = aX + b, E(Y) = aE(X) + b and Var(Y) = a^2 Var(X); adding a constant b never changes the variance, only multiplying by a does.
  3. To find one unknown parameter from a single probability statement about X ~ N(mu, sigma^2): standardise using z = (x-mu)/sigma, find the exact z-value that gives the stated probability using the inverse normal function, then substitute and rearrange for the unknown.
  4. When BOTH mu and sigma are unknown, form two equations of the form (x - mu)/sigma = z from two different given probabilities (each with its own x-value and its own z-value), then solve simultaneously, typically by subtracting one equation from the other to eliminate mu first.
  5. For a normal approximation Y ~ N(np, np(1-p)) to X ~ B(n,p), apply a continuity correction that always widens a strict inequality into the equivalent range for the continuous variable: P(X > r) becomes P(Y > r+0.5); P(X >= r) becomes P(Y > r-0.5); P(X < r) becomes P(Y < r-0.5); P(X <= r) becomes P(Y < r+0.5).
  6. Always check np > 5 and n(1-p) > 5 before using a normal approximation to a binomial distribution; if either condition fails, use the exact binomial distribution instead.

Worked example

The random variable X ~ N(mu, sigma^2). Given that P(X < 20) = 0.2 and P(X < 35) = 0.9, find the values of mu and sigma, each to 3 significant figures.

  1. Standardise both probability statements: (20 - mu)/sigma = z1, where P(Z < z1) = 0.2, and (35 - mu)/sigma = z2, where P(Z < z2) = 0.9.
  2. Find the z-values from the standard normal distribution: z1 = -0.8416 and z2 = 1.2816 (4dp each, using the inverse normal function).
  3. Write the two equations: 20 - mu = -0.8416 sigma ... (1); 35 - mu = 1.2816 sigma ... (2).
  4. Subtract equation (1) from equation (2) to eliminate mu: 15 = 2.1232 sigma.
  5. Solve for sigma: sigma = 15/2.1232 = 7.06 (3 s.f.).
  6. Substitute back into equation (1): mu = 20 + 0.8416(7.0649) = 25.9 (3 s.f.).

Practice questions

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Q1X ~ B(20, 0.3). Find E(4X + 5).Show answer

Answer: E(X) = 20(0.3) = 6, so E(4X+5) = 4(6)+5 = 29.

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Q2X ~ B(20, 0.3). Find Var(4X + 5).Show answer

Answer: Var(X) = 20(0.3)(0.7) = 4.2, so Var(4X+5) = 4^2 x 4.2 = 67.2.

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Q3X ~ N(mu, 6^2). Given that P(X > 40) = 0.15, find the value of mu, giving your answer to 1 decimal place.Show answer

Answer: P(X<40) = 0.85, so z = 1.0364 (4dp). (40-mu)/6 = 1.0364, giving mu = 40 - 6(1.0364) = 33.8.

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Q4X ~ N(50, sigma^2). Given that P(X < 58) = 0.9, find sigma, giving your answer to 2 significant figures.Show answer

Answer: z = 1.2816 (4dp, since P(Z<1.2816)=0.9). (58-50)/sigma = 1.2816, so sigma = 8/1.2816 = 6.2.

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Q5X ~ B(80, 0.4) is to be approximated by a normal distribution Y. State the continuity-corrected inequality used to approximate P(X >= 35).Show answer

Answer: P(Y > 34.5).

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Q6X ~ B(15, 0.1). Explain, with a calculation, why a normal approximation would NOT be appropriate for X.Show answer

Answer: np = 15(0.1) = 1.5, which is not greater than 5, so the condition np>5 fails. A normal approximation should not be used here; the exact binomial distribution should be used instead.

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Q7X ~ B(100, 0.5) is approximated by Y ~ N(50, 25). Use this approximation, with a continuity correction, to estimate P(45 <= X <= 55), giving your answer to 3 significant figures.Show answer

Answer: P(45<=X<=55) becomes P(44.5<Y<55.5). Standardising with mean 50 and standard deviation 5: z = -1.1 and z = 1.1. This gives a probability of 0.729 (3 s.f.).

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Exam-style questions

Written in the style of a A Level Maths exam paper, with a full mark scheme.

Q1[7 marks]

A factory finds that 8% of items on a production line are defective. A random sample of 150 items is selected. Let X be the number of defective items in the sample. (a) State two conditions needed for a normal distribution to be a suitable approximation for X, and show that both are satisfied here. (2) (b) Using a suitable normal approximation, find P(X > 16), giving your answer to 3 significant figures. (5)

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Q2[5 marks]

A discrete random variable X ~ B(40, 0.25) models the number of faulty bulbs in a box of 40. Each faulty bulb costs the manufacturer 3 pounds to replace, plus a fixed inspection fee of 20 pounds per box regardless of the number of faults. The total cost, in pounds, of a box is modelled by C = 3X + 20. (a) Find E(C) and Var(C). (4) (b) A different box has 60 bulbs with the same fault probability 0.25, using the same cost model C = 3X + 20. Explain, without further calculation, whether E(C) would increase, decrease, or stay the same compared with the 40-bulb box. (1)

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Q3[4 marks]

X ~ B(200, 0.45) is approximated by a normal distribution. (a) State the mean and variance of the normal approximation. (2) (b) Write down the continuity-corrected inequality (in terms of the normal variable Y) that should be used to estimate each of: (i) P(X < 85) (ii) P(X >= 95). (2)

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