GCSE Statistics · Topic guide

Risk (Foundation)

Risk is a measure of how likely an unwanted event is to happen, often given as a probability, a fraction, or a rate such as '1 in n people'. In GCSE Statistics, risk is used to compare how common or how dangerous different events are, for example the risk of a disease or an accident within a population. Risk can be described as absolute (the plain chance of the event happening) or relative (comparing risk between two groups).

Foundation tierProbabilityEdexcelAQA

Before you start

Make sure you're comfortable with these topics first:

Method

  1. Write the risk as a probability, fraction, percentage or '1 in n' statement using the numbers given.
  2. To find absolute risk, divide the number of people affected by the total number of people in the group.
  3. To compare risks between two groups, calculate the risk for each group separately using the same method.
  4. To find relative risk, divide one group's risk by the other group's risk.
  5. Interpret the relative risk in context: a relative risk greater than 1 means the first group has a higher risk than the second.
  6. Compare risk, not just raw numbers of people affected, since the groups being compared may be different sizes.

Worked example

In a survey of 400 smokers, 20 develop a certain lung condition. In a survey of 500 non-smokers, 5 develop the same condition. (a) Find the risk of developing the condition for smokers and for non-smokers. (b) Find the relative risk of a smoker developing the condition compared with a non-smoker.

  1. Risk for smokers = 20 divided by 400 = 0.05 = 1 in 20 = 5%.
  2. Risk for non-smokers = 5 divided by 500 = 0.01 = 1 in 100 = 1%.
  3. Relative risk = risk for smokers divided by risk for non-smokers = 0.05 divided by 0.01 = 5.
  4. Final answer: the risk is 5% for smokers and 1% for non-smokers; smokers are 5 times as likely to develop the condition as non-smokers (relative risk = 5).

Practice questions

Type your answer and press Check to be marked straight away, or reveal the answer and mark yourself.

Q1Out of 200 people who ate a certain meal, 10 became ill. What is the risk of becoming ill, as a fraction in its simplest form?Show answer

Answer: 1/20 (10/200 simplified).

Got it right?
Q2Express a risk of 1/20 as a percentage.Show answer

Answer: 5%.

Got it right?
Q3In a trial, 3 out of 150 patients taking a new drug had side effects. Write this risk in '1 in n' form.Show answer

Answer: 1 in 50 (3/150 = 1/50).

Got it right?
Q4Group A has a risk of 0.08 of an event happening; Group B has a risk of 0.02. Find the relative risk of Group A compared with Group B.Show answer

Answer: 4 (0.08 divided by 0.02 = 4).

Got it right?
Q5Out of 600 drivers who used a phone while driving, 24 had an accident that year, compared with 9 out of 900 drivers who did not use a phone. Calculate the risk of an accident for each group.Show answer

Answer: Phone users: 4% (24/600 = 0.04); non-users: 1% (9/900 = 0.01).

Got it right?
Q6Using your answers to the previous question, find the relative risk for phone users compared with non-users, and interpret it.Show answer

Answer: 4 (0.04 divided by 0.01); drivers who use a phone are 4 times as likely to have an accident as those who do not.

Got it right?

Exam-style questions

Written in the style of a GCSE Statistics exam paper, with a full mark scheme.

Q1[2 marks]

Out of 250 patients given a new vaccine, 5 experienced a mild side effect. Calculate the risk of a patient experiencing the side effect, giving your answer as a percentage.

Show mark scheme

Tick each line you got. Your score builds from the marks on the scheme.

Nothing ticked yet - 2 available

Got it right?
Q2[3 marks]

In Town A, 45 out of 900 residents were affected by flooding last year. In Town B, 20 out of 500 residents were affected. (a) Calculate the risk of flooding for each town as a percentage. (b) State which town has the higher risk.

Show mark scheme

Tick each line you got. Your score builds from the marks on the scheme.

Nothing ticked yet - 3 available

Got it right?
Q3[4 marks]

A study of 1200 cyclists who wear helmets finds that 6 had a head injury in a crash. A separate study of 800 cyclists who do not wear helmets finds that 16 had a head injury. (a) Calculate the risk of head injury for each group. (b) Calculate the relative risk of head injury for cyclists without a helmet compared with cyclists with a helmet.

Show mark scheme

Tick each line you got. Your score builds from the marks on the scheme.

Nothing ticked yet - 4 available

Got it right?

See real GCSE Statistics past-paper questions, with official mark schemes

Free printable worksheet

Want more practice on paper? Download the risk (foundation) worksheet pack - 16 pages of exam-style questions with a full mark scheme. One email opens every download in this browser for 14 days - no account, no card. Print it for personal and classroom use.

This topic is chapter 14 of GCSE Statistics Foundation Workbook 2, the whole course as one free printable PDF.

Other cuts of this worksheet:

Next topics

Ready to practise risk (foundation)? Add it to a printable topic pack for this student in the Pack Builder.

Add to my pack

Not quite what you needed?

Tell us what is missing on risk (foundation), or which topic to write up next. Every request is read, and we reply to every one.

Build a full practice pack.

This topic is one of hundreds in the library - pick the ones a student needs and generate a printable PDF in minutes.