The Media, Opinion Polls and Their Influence on UK Elections

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• identifies a genuine mechanism, e.g. the bandwagon effect or parties targeting resources based on poll findings.1 mark
• explains how that mechanism works, e.g. voters moving towards a party shown as likely to win, or parties focusing campaign spending on seats polls suggest are close.1 mark
• gives a correct, specific real example or fact, e.g. the underestimation of Conservative support in the 2015 general election polls.1 mark
• explains what that example shows about poll influence or reliability.1 mark
• notes a limitation, e.g. that polls carry a margin of error, so their influence is based on estimates rather than certainty.1 mark
• expresses the explanation clearly using accurate terminology.1 mark

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Tick each line you got. Your score builds from the marks on the scheme.

• The introduction sets out a clear thesis that directly answers the question, and this thesis is sustained throughout. Each of the three main paragraphs presents a genuine two-sided debate, a point and a counterpoint, with accurate and detailed knowledge, and reaches a supported judgement. The conclusion follows logically from the three paragraph judgements rather than simply restating them. Analysis and evaluation are consistently strong throughout.3 marks
• A clear thesis is stated in the introduction and mostly sustained. Most paragraphs present both sides of the debate with generally accurate, relevant knowledge, though depth or balance may be uneven in one paragraph. Judgements are present in most paragraphs and the conclusion broadly follows from them.3 marks
• A thesis is attempted but may be unclear or only partly sustained across the essay. At least one paragraph is one-sided rather than presenting a genuine debate, which limits the level the answer can reach even where the knowledge shown is accurate. Judgements are inconsistent between paragraphs.2 marks
• Limited or generalised knowledge with little clear structure. Paragraphs tend to describe rather than debate the question, with few or no explicit judgements, and the response may drift away from the question set.2 marks
• Very limited, largely inaccurate or irrelevant knowledge. No clear thesis, paragraph structure or judgement is offered.2 marks
• No relevant content, or the response does not engage with the question.2 marks
• Case for media having more influence: partisan national newspapers have historically leaned towards one party, and repeated exposure to a consistent editorial line over a long campaign could shape how undecided readers see the parties and leaders.2 marks
• Case for media having more influence: broadcast coverage decisions, such as which issues and events lead the news, can set the agenda for what voters see as important during a campaign, even while broadcasters remain formally impartial between parties.2 marks
• Case for media having more influence: social media and targeted digital advertising, highlighted by the concerns raised in the 2016 Cambridge Analytica controversy, allow campaigns to reach specific voters with tailored messages in a way traditional media cannot.2 marks
• Case for opinion polls having more influence: polls can directly shape tactical voting decisions, since voters in a marginal seat may rely on constituency-level polling to decide which candidate can best stop a disliked party, an effect with a very direct link to the actual vote cast.2 marks
• Case for opinion polls having more influence: media coverage itself is often driven by poll findings, for example a narrative of a party 'surging' or 'collapsing' in the polls becoming a news story in its own right, suggesting polls can shape media coverage rather than the reverse.2 marks
• Case for opinion polls having more influence: the scale of the 2015 poll failure shows how much weight was placed on poll findings by commentators, party strategists and voters, since the gap between the polls and the actual result was treated as a major event in itself.2 marks
• Balanced content: media and polls interact rather than working independently, since media coverage regularly reports and interprets poll findings, and can amplify or downplay them, making it hard to separate their effects cleanly.2 marks
• A supported conclusion that weighs the media's sustained, longer campaign-length influence against the polls' more direct, tactical influence on specific voting decisions, rather than asserting one side without reference to both.2 marks

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